KDD Capital — Property Intelligence

WALVIS BAY PROPERTY MARKET

⚡ VENUS FID EST. Q3 2027 · EST. POSITION T−15 TO T−24 MONTHS · ENTRY WINDOW OPEN · CONVICTION 76/100
MARCH 2026 · DATA: FNB NAMIBIA · MEL RESEARCH
VENUS DISCOVERY: Q1 2022 · ESTIMATED FID: Q3 2027
EST. POSITION: T−15 TO T−24 MONTHS · FID EST. Q3 2027 · CONVICTION 76/100
SECTION 01
RESIDENTIAL
Three sub-markets tracked: Houses · Apartments · Short-Stay
Sale price index + rental rate · Comparable city overlays at equivalent O&G cycle stage
DISCOVERY → FID WINDOW
WB + SWAKOPMUND AVG HOUSE
N$1.54M
SOURCED · FNB HPI
▲ +4.2% QoQ
AVG APT (1-BED)
N$820K
LISTED · P24/MYPROP
▲ +3.1% QoQ
SHORT-STAY /NIGHT
N$1,622
LISTED · AIRBNB
▲ +12% YoY
HOUSE RENTAL /MO
N$25,500
LISTED · P24
▲ +8.5% YoY
APT RENTAL /MO
N$7,200
ESTIMATED
▲ +6.8% YoY
TRANSACTION VOL QoQ
+36.4%
ESTIMATED
Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024
Sources: FNB Namibia HPI  ·  Property24 Namibia  ·  MyProperty  ·  Pam Golding  ·  Grobbies Estates  ·  Ramos Realtors
Residential Price Index — Comparable O&G Host Cities (Discovery = 100)
All cities rebased to 100 at discovery announcement. X-axis = months relative to FID (T=0). Walvis Bay FID estimated Q3 2027.
Walvis Bay (NAM)
Georgetown (GUY · Liza)
Port Moresby (PNG · LNG)
Darwin (AUS · Ichthys)
Takoradi (GHA · Jubilee)
Stavanger (NOR · Sverdrup ⚠ bear)
Houses — 3-Bedroom Residential
Sale Price Trend  ·  Houses
Walvis Bay + Swakopmund 3-bed avg vs comparable cities at equivalent pre-FID stage
Walvis Bay
Georgetown
Port Moresby
Takoradi
CURRENT AVG
N$1,540,000
Index: 152 (base 100 = Q1 2022)
BASE TARGET (FIRST OIL)
N$1,750,000
+14% · Georgetown median comp
Rental Rate Trend  ·  Houses
Monthly rental (3-bed) — Walvis Bay vs expat-grade rentals in comparable cities
Walvis Bay N$/mo
Georgetown US$/mo
Darwin A$/mo
CURRENT RENTAL
N$25,500/mo
Yield: ~9.6% gross
EXPAT PEAK ESTIMATE
N$22,000/mo
+77% · Darwin construction peak
Apartments — 1 & 2 Bedroom
Sale Price Trend  ·  Apartments
Walvis Bay 1–2 bed apartment avg vs comparable O&G cities
Walvis Bay
Georgetown
Darwin
CURRENT AVG (1-BED)
N$820,000
N$650/sqm est.
BASE TARGET
N$960,000
+17% · median comp trajectory
Rental Rate Trend  ·  Apartments
Monthly rental — 1-bed units, Walvis Bay vs O&G expat demand comparables
Walvis Bay N$/mo
Georgetown US$/mo
Port Moresby
CURRENT RENTAL
N$7,200/mo
Yield: ~10.5% gross
EXPAT PEAK ESTIMATE
N$14,500/mo
+101% · Georgetown T+12 comp
Short-Stay & Serviced Accommodation
Nightly Rate Trend  ·  Short-Stay
Average nightly rate — Walvis Bay serviced units vs PNG LNG / Darwin construction peaks
Walvis Bay N$/night
Darwin A$/night (peak)
Port Moresby peak
CURRENT NIGHTLY
N$1,622
Occupancy: ~68% est.
CONSTRUCTION PEAK EST.
N$3,800
+130% · Darwin peak analogue
Occupancy Rate Trend  ·  Short-Stay
Estimated occupancy % — Walvis Bay vs O&G host city construction phase benchmarks
Walvis Bay
Darwin peak phase
Port Moresby peak
CURRENT OCCUPANCY
~68%
Supply severely constrained
PEAK PHASE ESTIMATE
95–100%
Zero vacancy · both comps
SECTION 02
COMMERCIAL
WALVIS BAY ONLY
Three sub-markets: Office · Warehouse/Bay · Open Yard/Laydown
Capital value per sqm + rental per sqm/year · Port-adjacent O&G demand comps
INDUSTRIAL PRIORITY WINDOW
INDUSTRIAL /SQM
N$9,300
ESTIMATED
▲ +11% YoY
WAREHOUSE RENT /SQM/YR
N$1,080
ESTIMATED
▲ +9% YoY
YARD RENT /SQM/YR
N$420
ESTIMATED
▲ +14% YoY
OFFICE /SQM/MO
N$155
LISTED · P24
→ Stable
INDUSTRIAL / RES RATIO
15.2×
ESTIMATED
Darwin peak: 18×
PORT VACANCY EST.
LOW
ESTIMATED
→ Near-zero pre-FID
Sources: CT Property Rentals (DD001 anchor)  ·  Comparable city modelling: Darwin East Arm  ·  Georgetown  ·  Takoradi  ·  Property24 Industrial
Commercial / Industrial Price Index — O&G Host Cities (Discovery = 100)
Industrial/port-adjacent property rebased to 100 at discovery. Consistently outperforms residential by 1.5–2.5× in pre-FID window. Darwin East Arm Hub and Georgetown logistics corridor are primary comparables.
Walvis Bay Industrial (NAM)
Georgetown Logistics (GUY)
Darwin East Arm Hub (AUS)
Takoradi Supply Base (GHA)
Stavanger Industrial (NOR ⚠)
Office — Grade A & B Commercial
Capital Value  ·  Office /sqm
Walvis Bay grade A/B office vs comparable O&G cities — corporate demand driven by operator HQs
Walvis Bay N$/sqm
Georgetown US$/sqm
Maputo US$/sqm (comp)
CURRENT /SQM
N$6,200
Grade B prime area est.
FID TARGET /SQM
N$8,500
+37% · corporate HQ demand
Rental Rate  ·  Office /sqm/month
Monthly rent per sqm — operator + contractor office demand surge at FID
Walvis Bay N$/sqm/mo
Georgetown US$/sqm/mo
Maputo US$/sqm/mo
CURRENT RENT
N$155/sqm/mo
Yield: ~17.8% gross
CONSTRUCTION PEAK
N$160/sqm/mo
+74% · Maputo comp
Warehouse & Bay Units — O&G Service
Capital Value  ·  Warehouse /sqm
High-bay workshop/warehouse in Walvis Bay Light Industrial zone vs Darwin East Arm Hub at equiv. stage
Walvis Bay N$/sqm
Darwin A$/sqm
Takoradi supply base
CURRENT /SQM
N$9,300
Light Industrial zone listed
CONSTRUCTION PEAK
N$14,500
+56% · Darwin FID+24 comp
Rental Rate  ·  Warehouse /sqm/year
Annual rent per sqm — bay units with crane, hardstand. O&G contractors are anchor tenants
Walvis Bay N$/sqm/yr
Darwin A$/sqm/yr
Takoradi est.
CURRENT RENT
N$1,080/sqm/yr
Yield: ~11.6% gross
PEAK PHASE TARGET
N$2,200/sqm/yr
+104% · Darwin peak analogue
Open Yard & Laydown — Port-Adjacent
Capital Value  ·  Open Yard /sqm
Hardstanding open yard near Namport — highest O&G demand category by area. Near-zero vacancy pre-FID in all comps.
Walvis Bay N$/sqm
Darwin hardstand
Takoradi port zone
CURRENT /SQM (EST.)
N$3,200
Port-adjacent hardstand
FID TARGET /SQM
N$6,800
+113% · consolidation premium
Rental Rate  ·  Open Yard /sqm/year
Annual rent per sqm — laydown/pipe storage. Darwin East Arm and Takoradi supply base are primary comps
Walvis Bay N$/sqm/yr
Darwin A$/sqm/yr
Takoradi est.
CURRENT RENT
N$420/sqm/yr
Yield: ~13.1% gross
CONSTRUCTION PEAK
N$980/sqm/yr
+133% · Darwin FID+12